Big warm up coming

Hope everyone had a great weekend and enjoyed the refreshing temperatures yesterday!

A few high clouds float through the region throughout the morning, but we'll become sunny this afternoon with highs in the mid 70s.

The cooler temperatures stick around one more day before we see some big changes. Highs will climb from the mid 70s this afternoon to almost 90 this weekend. The reason is the ridge of high pressure providing us pristine weather today will shift eastward and get us into a southerly flow. That southerly flow taps into some Gulf moisture this weekend, which means a stray shower or thunderstorm may bubble up. The Euro is a bit more gung-ho about the rain chances come Saturday & Sunday, hence why I included a chance of rain, albeit a slight one at this time, both those days.



Here's the ridge responsible for our cool temperatures now:

It's over northern Mississippi now, but notice where it is this weekend...:

...out in the Atlantic, bringing us those 90° temperatures Saturday & Sunday.

If you think that's warm, look what a long range model, the GFS and to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt, is showing Memorial Day weekend. That would put many of us in the 90s with a few stray showers.

In yesterday's post, I mentioned a tropical entity in the Caribbean Sea come the last week of May. The models still hint at something developing in either the Caribbean or the eastern Pacific Ocean. If I had to put money on it, I'd say the Pacific storm solution is more plausible as they would already be in their Hurricane Season. The ITCZ, inter-tropical convergence zone, is still pretty far south and would take a rogue tropical wave breaking off and heading in to the Caribbean.

Here's the two different solutions from back to back runs of the GFS, just one of the models I use to forecast:

18Z from May 12:

 

0Z from May 13:

A refreshing start to Mother's Day

Happy Mother's Day!

A cold front moved through last night with little fan-fare. We managed to pick up a trace, officially, of rain last night as the front swept across the southeast. The biggest thing you'll notice is lower humidity as dew points have dipped into the low 50s and will continue to fall throughout the afternoon. Glorious sunshine will allow us to top out in the low to mid 70s. Cooler weather stays here the next couple of days with some locations waking up to the mid to upper 40s come Monday and Tuesday. However, the cooler temperatures won't last all that long, which isn't shocking considering it is mid-May.

 Here's a look at the temperature trend from a variety of computer models over the next week or so.

Temperatures rebound into the mid-upper 80s as the trough providing us cooler temperatures nudges away, allowing a ridge to take its place to end the work week. This ridge will bring mid 90s to the mid-section of the country and keep the storm track well to our north. That said, a few convective showers may be possible next weekend, but they'll be isolated in nature and most will stay dry.

Hurricane Season:
Hurricane season starts in less than 3 weeks and the GFS is trying to develop a storm in the western Caribbean. It's had this feature, varying in intensity, location, and date of formation, for the past couple of days at the end of its model runs. This usually means the model is trying to sniff something out. It's WAY too early to be specific, but it'll be something to keep an eye on as we head towards the beginning of hurricane season.

Here's a look at the 336 hour forecast. It appears somewhat strong in this image, but I'm just using this to illustrate the point that something may start brewing in the Caribbean come the last week of May.

Image courtesy of http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/. A site I recently found and has a lot of different variables for the Tropical Atlantic.

Record Heat on the Way

Good morning!

Prepare for a HOT weekend across the Deep South. The only places that will escape the heat will be along the Gulf Coast and Florida. Otherwise, we will see record breaking temperatures from Friday through at least Sunday. The culprit is a large ridge of high pressure across the midsection of the nation. It will slide east this afternoon and makes temperatures climb into the upper 90s. The century mark is in the forecast tomorrow and Saturday before the heat slackens some Sunday. Some models are printing out highs above 104°, which is the all-time record high for Columbus. I'm not forecasting highs that hot, but we'll see low 100s across the board tomorrow and Saturday.

A bit of moisture is expected to nudge in from the south starting Sunday, so I bumped the high into the upper 90s. Just know that a few locations will see triple digit heat Sunday, even with the increase in moisture. The ridge weakens some next week, but we're still expecting highs in the mid to upper 90s as we head into the July 4th holiday.

Here's a few graphics to illustrate what I'm talking about:

Forecast highs according to the models:

500 mb heights and Vorticity tomorrow afternoon showing the high over north Georgia: 

Check out the weather section to see your First Alert 7-Day Planner: http://davidwarrenreese.blogspot.com/p/weather.html

Umbrella's time to shine!

Good Wednesday morning!

It's raining! The rain we've been tracking in Mississippi and Louisiana the past few mornings has finally marched east. The cold front will bring us a for more showers, maybe a thunderstorm, this afternoon before we clear out.

Thursday & Friday:
Both days are looking dry. A few clouds are possible Thursday morning as the front clears the area. We'll then break into a good deal of sunshine with highs in the upper 70s. Friday looks a bit warmer with even more sunshine. A southerly breeze will kick up Friday afternoon, which will set the stage for a soggy, and potentially stormy, weekend.

Weekend: 
The upper level low mentioned in yesterday's blog post is still in the cards. It will be a tad slower than originally forecast, though that is to be expected with this kind of system. Let's look at some of the maps, shall we?

European model 500 mb Vorticity for Saturday night:

The picture above shows the upper level low spinning over New Orleans. Winds around lows are counter-clockwise, which means we'll be experiencing a strong southerly breeze. This sends a good bit of moisture and instability our direction.  Another interesting feature is the area of positive vorticity over southwest Georgia with neutral vorticity in southeast Alabama. The represents an area of lift, bringing the potential for stronger thunderstorms, in the form of a squall line, for areas to the south of Columbus and Auburn. That's illustrated in the next map.

Euro precip/SLP for Saturday night:

Notice the greens and yellows, indicating heavier rainfall totals, across Southwest Georgia and the Big Bend region of Florida. That's the squall line. Stay weather aware if you live along the Florida Peninsula as the line passes through Saturday evening and into the overnight. Squall lines usually bring high winds with an isolated tornado not out of the question, especially along the west coast of Florida.

In Columbus and Auburn, I'm forecasting the line of stronger storms to stay to our south. That means we'll see a moderate to heavy rain event with a few thunderstorms possible. A dry slot develops Saturday night/Sunday morning, essentially shutting off our rain chances for a few hours. This is typical just east of upper level lows as the rain races away from the main system. IF this doesn't happen, then we could see more rain than is currently forecast, which is about an 1 to 2":

I'll conclude with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighting southern Alabama & Georgia and all of Florida for a threat of severe weather Saturday:

Next Week:
After all the rain moves out, we'll cool into the low 70s with breezy northerly winds Monday and Tuesday. A peek into the future shows a dry pattern taking hold for much of next week.

Have a great Wednesday! Remember to check out your 7-day forecast!

Much needed RAIN!

Good morning! It's time to get this thing started back up.

A few light showers produced a few rainbows around Columbus yesterday. Here's a few pictures.

Next Few Days:
If you weren't lucky enough to pick up some rain then hold on a few more hours. The front stationed to our west will migrate to the east over the next 24-36 hours. Once the front pushes past our area, we'll forecast a bit of sunshine for Thursday and Friday.

Weekend:
However, Friday night through Sunday look rather wet. Here's why:

The Euro at 9Z Sunday morning:

That blob of red and purple you see over New Orleans is the vorticity associated with an Upper Level Low (ULL). It's forecast to develop over the state of Texas Friday afternoon and slither east. Upper level lows are known to be slow movers, as this will be, and bring a good deal of rain to the southeast.

Here's the Euro's precipitation map at the same time:

Notice, the heaviest activity is over Georgia. This is about 18 hours after the event starts, so expect to pick up a good bit of rain this weekend.

For comparison's sake, here's the GFS at the same hour:

Here are some numbers the models are printing out: 

(NOTE: This does NOT have the Euro QPF, but the GFS is similar to the Euro's solution)

Both global models, GFS and Euro, have Columbus picking up about 2 inches of rain over the next week. That's GREAT news for a parched southeast! Even better news is this storm system bringing beneficial rainfall to Florida. Parts of that state have been bone dry through much of winter and early spring. However, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is greater along the peninsula. Locally, we may see a strong thunderstorm or two, but the tornado threat is extremely low and I'm not concerned about it at this time.

After the system passes to our east Monday, we'll cool off into the low to mid 70s. However, it should be noted that past runs of the models have shown MUCH cooler temperatures for us. We'll have to wait and see what happens.

Rain moves in with stronger storms on the horizon

Good Friday morning!

We've warmed a GREAT deal since Tuesday. We topped out in the mid 60s yesterday, after struggling to get out of the 30s Tuesday. Quite the warm up! Get used to it, though, as we'll see even warmer temperatures this weekend.

Today: 
A mostly sunny sky will greet us in the morning with lows in the mid 30s. The sun will do its job and warm us into the mid to upper 60s this afternoon. Clouds will then flow into the Valley but no rain yet. Enjoy the warmer temperatures and pleasant conditions as we transition to a rainy, humid period tomorrow.

Weekend: 
A warm front will lift north tomorrow morning. Warmth and humid conditions will stream up from the Gulf of Mexico, creating a mild weekend. The chance for rain will increase tomorrow afternoon and be with us through Wednesday. We aren't anticipating much rain with the HPC giving us between a 1/4 to 3/4 over the next three days:

Highs each day will top out near 70. Luckily, there isn't enough instability to forecast thunderstorms, just a few scattered showers. This pattern holds through Monday before we begin tracking a more potent system Tuesday.


Tuesday/Wednesday:
As mentioned above, a strong system is forecast to move through the Deep South late Tuesday/early Wednesday. The timing will need to be worked out over the weekend, but we're likely to see some strong thunderstorms. Here's why:

00Z GFS for Tuesday afternoon:

00Z Euro:

Both models are depicting a strengthening closed low rolling through the South. As it strengthens, it will increase the lift out ahead of it. You can see this best with Euro, where there's good divergence, spreading of the white lines. That's right over us as a the jet streak, area of high winds above the surface. The GFS has a pretty decent sounding for sheared storms with backing, winds going from SE at the surface to SW at 500 mb:

This shows there will be a great deal of shear, winds changing with height located on the right hand side of the image. It is one component we look for when forecasting stronger thunderstorms. The one thing this system doesn't have is CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy). CAPE is when the temperature profile, red line, is to the left of the environmental profile which goes from the LCL, Lifted Condensation Level, to LOC, Limit of Convection. In the sounding above, that's not the case at all. However, in winter, the Deep South sees quite a few of these low CAPE/high shear systems and can produce tornadoes, December 22, 2011 is the most recent example of this. This set-up isn't looking as strong as that day but it is 5 days out and a lot of things can change! We're calling for strong storms right now, but the timing and strength will be figured out over the weekend.

Remember to go to our First Alert 7-Day Planner to plan for next week!

Coldest day in 11 months

Good Tuesday morning! I hope everyone had a great New Year!

Today will be the coldest day of this cold snap. We'll be back above average by Friday so the roller coaster of temperatures continues.

Today:
Strong winds knocked out power to some last night. They have slackened big time in the overnight hours and we aren't seeing any of those 30mph+ gusts. That's the good news. The bad news; it's going to be downright cold for us this afternoon. Highs will struggle to reach the low 40s with our neighbors to the north not making it out of the 30s. The high pressure responsible for this cold weather will slide southeast this afternoon; settling over us tomorrow morning. This paves the way for tomorrow morning to be colder than this morning.

Rest of Week: 
Wednesday afternoon will begin the warming trend as we see a southwest wind at the surface. Temperatures go from the low 50s to the mid 60s by Friday. A few high clouds are possible Thursday afternoon in response to a weak impulse of energy in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. A fairly vanilla forecast.

Weekend:
A few weak impulses of energy will be able to tap into some Gulf moisture. A dying shortwave will be responsible for the first wave of light rain, maybe drizzle, late late Friday night and Saturday morning. A secondary, slightly stronger wave will move in Saturday afternoon providing a bit of extra lift to wring out a few more showers. Rainfall totals look to be in the half inch to inch category, but it's too early to be specific about totals.

Remember to check out the 7-day planner for a glance at your weekend!


Next Week:
I want to draw our attention to next Tuesday. The models are miles apart in regards to their solution:

00Z GFS for 6Z Tuesday, Jan 10:

00Z Euro for 6Z Tuesday, Jan 10:

The GFS is very progressive, fast, with its solution. It takes the shortwave from Canada and dives it off the southeast coast where it closes the low off. This solution gives a few flurries for the immediate coast of the Carolinas. I'm not so sure I buy this 100% as the Euro is completely different. The Euro already has the low closed off in Texas and crawls it along the northern Gulf Coast throughout next week. It keeps us warmer than the GFS next Monday. It would give us more rain too. Overall, the two models are hinting at the same thing, just different positions. The exact location of the low closing off will have a big impact on our weather next week. I'm leaning toward the GFS more in my forecast since the PNA is forecast to go positive for a brief time. That allows the ridge out west to build and cause the shortwave to trek farther east. The Euro also has the ridge fairly strong out west which is why I think later solutions will trend east.

The reason the position of the closed low is important is because crazy things happen underneath them. Some of those crazy things include snow on the northwest side, if there is enough moisture to work with that is. I'm not saying that will happen in this case, but crazier things have happened!