More sunshine!

Good Wednesday morning! We're halfway through the week and it's only going to get warmer.

Another round of sunshine will greet you this morning before a few high clouds pass through later today. Temperatures will warm into the low 70s, a few spots may even see 74/75. These highs aren't close to the record high, 78, but are well above average for December.

Today:
Wake up temperatures are in the mid 40s for most, with the lone 50 degree reading in Auburn. As you're at work, the sun will do its job and warm us nicely into the low to mid 60s by lunchtime. A few high clouds start entering the picture later today, but they won't stop us from warming into the low 70s.

Friday/Saturday:
The cold front I've been advertising the past few days will get hung up across the Tennessee River Valley tomorrow night. It will take another impulse of energy and a strong northwesterly flow aloft to kick front through our area Saturday morning. Even though the cold front will bring copious amounts of rain to parts of Tennessee and Mississippi, it won't bring a whole lot to our neck of the woods. Here's a look at the Bufkit precipitation chart for the next week:

As mentioned in yesterday's blog, I'm forecasting us to pick up less than a quarter of an inch of rain. There's just not a whole lot of moisture or right dynamics in place to give us a good soaking.

Next Week:
Alright, I've been detailing next week's system for the past few days and there are a few changes to report this morning. The models have COMPLETELY flipped; the GFS now looks like the EURO from yesterday, while the EURO looks like the GFS from yesterday... Oh the joys of forecasting! Today, the GFS has the closed-low in the same position as the EURO yesterday and moves it into the Central Plains States. A secondary piece of energy will rotate around the base of the trough next Wednesday and provide us a chance for rain. Here's what I'm talking about:

The EURO, though, is much like the GFS yesterday. It still has the closed-low in northern Mexico but it ejects the low into the Great Lakes by next week. A cold front associated with the low will sweep through the Deep South here next Wednesday. With this solution, we wouldn't cool off as much as the GFS has us cooling off as we stay in a westerly flow aloft:

A cold front will move through the southeast next Tuesday/Wednesday, a tad earlier than my forecast the previous two days. It remains to be seen whether we see a lot of rain or even much colder weather as we head into Christmas. This system could create a few headaches for those trying to get north for Christmas with great amounts of rain possible for the northeast. I will note that the GFS Ensembles are looking much like the EURO at this time.

As always, check out the First Alert 7-Day Planner to plan for your weekend!

Warming Trend Begins!

Good morning!
 
Were you able to stay warm yesterday? Our official high was 50, a good 10 degrees below average. Today will be much different. A good supply of sunshine and southeasterly winds will warm us a few degrees ABOVE average. A southerly wind tomorrow will warm us into the upper 60s with a few locations touching that 70 degree mark. This roller coaster of temperature swings continues.

End of Week:
A cold front is forecast to chug into the Tennessee River Valley before coming to a screeching halt Thursday evening. It will stall out just to our north so the chance for rain will be best for our neighbors to the north Thursday night. An upper level ridge will provide the umph needed to sag the front south of our area Saturday afternoon so Friday looks to be the best day for rain. Here's the rainfall forecast issued by the HPC for Friday thru Saturday:

The heaviest rain will fall closer to where the front stalls; northern Alabama and Georgia. Locally, we're expecting less than a quarter of an inch.

Long Range:
Next week, the week before Christmas, looks interesting. A strong trough, or closed-low depending on what model you investigate as I'll show you in just a minute, is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest. Like many before it, this trough will lift northeast into the Midwest. Now, the tricky part will be determining just how far northeast this trough goes. Here's what I mean:

00Z GFS 500 mb @ hr 150:

00Z GFS 500 mb @ hr 180:

Compared to the EURO at the same hours:
hr 150:

hr 180:

That's quite a difference between the two more reliable models. The GFS has the trough as an open wave moving through northern New Mexico which ejects toward the Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. The Euro has a closed low in northern Mexico and has it taking a path through the Midwest next Tuesday morning. The path all depends on how the southeast ridge is modeled. Models have been overdoing the strength of the southeast ridge, a staple of La Nina winters which we're in a weak Nina now. If the SE ridge is flatter, not as strong, then the Euro solution is more likely. The opposite is true if the ridge is stronger.

Right now, I'll lean more with the Euro as it has a little more support from its Ensembles and the GFS Ensembles. It's something to watch because areas to the northwest of the low will see quite a bit of snow! No, I'm not forecasting that for us, but it's something fun to watch as we inch closer to Christmas. I'm still holding with my forecast from yesterday that the front, associated with the low, will sweep through next Thursday; bringing us our next chance for rain.

Back behind the front will be some colder air. If we can get another disturbance to cause some overrunning precipitation, which appears possible with the Euro, then parts of the Carolinas could see some wintry precipitation. This doesn't look possible for us, just wanted it noted to see how well I forecasted. ;)

Remember to check out the 7-day planner to figure out what the weather will be like this weekend!

Cold Rain!

Good Monday Morning! I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend!

If you haven't been watching, I've been talking about a few sporadic showers with a few more rounds possible this afternoon. All the clouds and rain will keep us quite cool! The sun should return tomorrow afternoon but it will still have to deal with those pesky high clouds. Highs will warm each and every day this workweek as illustrated in the First Alert 7-Day Planner.

Now:
Showers are the name of the game. The heaviest activity rolled through between 4:30 and 7 this morning with the heaviest activity across southeast Georgia, where they desperately needed it. Locally, we've picked up 0.62"! This is beneficial as it will cut into our 8.86" deficit for year. Clouds and rain have kept us all in the low 40s this morning and won't allow us to warm all that much this afternoon. Remember to check out the Interactive Radar before you step out the door this morning to find out if the rain is over your house!

Here's a peek at the radar, showing the heaviest activity through Chambers, Harris and Talbot counties, as of 7:40 AM:

This Week: 
If you remember last week's blog posts you'll remember me talking about a chance for rain later this week. I still have the chance in there for Thursday night and Friday morning, but don't expect a deluge. Here's why:

00Z GFS (YES, I started using the same site, wunderground, to keep things consistent for you):

There's the trough, draped across Kentucky, that was forecast to sweep through the area. In fact, if you remember earlier last week, the GFS showed a cut-off low moving through the Deep South. This is CLEARLY not going to happen and I'm glad I didn't bite on that solution as it didn't have much support from other models (another great example why you can't look at only one model when forecasting).

Here's the 00Z EURO for the same hour (Thursday night):

This shows a weak disturbance, piece of energy or shortwave, moving through northern Alabama creating an area of lift to initiate a few showers late Thursday/early Friday. Both models show a front draped just south of the Ohio River Valley that will be hard pressed to sweep through the Deep South. That's why I'm forecasting a chance for rain Thursday evening. The front will finally push through the area overnight Friday, dropping our temperatures back into the mid 60s this weekend.

Long Range: 
Another thing I enjoy doing in this blog is forecasting the 7 to 10 day range. Here's an image off the GFS for next Sunday night:

There's a trough lifting out of the Four Corners region and looks to be heading for the Great Lakes region. A quick glance at the GFS Ensembles shows this solution might be a bit too progressive, fast, and opens the low too early. I expect the low to lag back across the southwest and spin for a few days, as shown by the EURO:

So what's all the mean for us next week? It means we'll forecast a fairly dry Saturday through Tuesday before the tail end of a front gets close to us, bringing rain next Thursday.

Have a great Monday!

A Milky Sky

Good Friday Morning!

High clouds continue to stream through the Deep South, racing across the sky because of the subtropical jetstream. They haven't kept us from seeing low to mid 30s area wide, though, so that jacket will be needed as you step out the door. Expect highs in the mid to upper 50s despite the clouds and even warmer temperatures for your Saturday.

Today:
Alright, so I mentioned the high clouds but where are they coming from? A view of the infrared satellite shows they are coming from the southwest, near Texas:

The brighter colors, greens and blues, indicate the clouds heading our way. They are riding along the subtropical jetstream which is evident on this morning's analysis of the 250 mb map:

The salmon colors indicate stronger winds and we're able to tell it's the subtropical jet because the polar jetstream is diving out of Canada, near Montana. As long as this subtropical jet is over the top of us, we'll see those high clouds filter out the sunshine.

Weekend: 
Tomorrow will see temperatures near 60 degrees before a DRY cold front moves through in the evening. This will reinforce the cold air already in place and drop our highs back into the mid 50s. The sun won't be as filtered once the front shoves the subtropical jet south.

Long Range: 
If you read yesterday's blog, you'll remember I talked about the GFS showing the possibility of a cut-off low moving through the Deep South next Thursday. Well, just 24 hours later and we're talking about a scenario similar to what the Euro illustrated. Here's what I mean:

The above is from the 00Z GFS for Thursday afternoon. Notice the energy, depicted in yellows and oranges, are WELL north; closer to the Great Lakes than the Deep South. It's still an open wave, no closed lines in the middle, meaning it's not as strong as what the Euro is showing:

The Euro has this low becoming closed in the mid-levels, meaning it has the potential to get fairly strong at the surface. Winds in this set-up could gust as high as 50 mph across the Great Plains and may bring blizzard like conditions to the Dakotas. It's certainly something I'll keep an eye on through the weekend. Both models show a ridge, pleasant weather, through the beginning half of next week and warmer temperatures.

How does this change the impact on our area? Well, it won't rain as much and the timing of the rain, if any, has been pushed back another day. Overall, the pattern is loaded with these disturbances and I wouldn't be surprised to see this trough dig a little farther south, as other storms have done in the past. These are the joys of forecasting the longer range, 5-10 days. Models like changing, sometimes quite a bit, so we have to recognize the pattern and see if anything has changed in the teleconnections, or will change, to get a decent grasp of what's going to happen. I can tell you this much: there will NOT be a prolonged cold spell anytime within next 10-14 days.

Remember to check out the 7-day planner to figure out what the next week has in store for you!

Sun returns!

Good morning! We're experiencing a chilly start to your Thursday. Many of us bottomed out in the low 30s under a mostly clear sky. A few high clouds are streaming through and will continue to do so until this afternoon. These high clouds won't keep the sun from warming us into the mid 50s!

Here's a look at the current temperatures around the southeast this morning:

 

The cold front made it all the way through Florida, providing them with the coldest air of the season, and left us in the low 30s this morning. 

Tomorrow will feature a few more clouds than today but they won't keep us from bumping up the temperatures a few degrees. If you're looking forward to the weekend, then you'll love the forecast! Check out our 7-day planner for a quick peek. 

LONG RANGE:

Let's go ahead and talk about the end of next week! Why not, right? The weather will be fairly benign until then. 

The long range models, GFS and Euro, are at complete odds. The two recent runs of the GFS, 00Z & 06Z, show another cut-off low moving through the Deep South. This same set-up was seen the past two weeks. Remember what happened? Yup, SNOW for portions of the Southeast. I'm not saying it's set in stone, but the GFS is saying it's a distinct possibility. 

Here's the 500 mb map from the 00Z GFS @ hour 186 (next Thursday afternoon): 

This set-up seems eerily similar to what we saw this past Wednesday. Locations to the northwest of the cut-off low would see another round of snow. BUT, the exact track is certainly not set in stone, not even close. In fact, here's the 500 mb forecast map for the same time period, shown above, from the 06Z GFS @ hour 183:

Notice the subtle differences between the two images. The cut-off low has shifted north as the northern trough, forecast to move into the Dakotas in the 00Z run, isn't there for the 06Z run. This allows the cut-off low to travel further to the north. The trough over the west coast is MUCH sharper in the 06Z run than the 00Z run, also shoving the cut-off low to the north. I'll continue to monitor this set-up as this cut-off low only showed up in the 00Z run.

Now, let me show you why you can't look at just ONE model:

The image above is the 00Z Euro from last night. The yellows and reds are similar to the GFS seen above, it's just a different color scheme. It's for hour 180 instead of 186, but it's close enough. I feel very confident in saying that the Euro is NOT going to pop a cut-off low over the southeast by hour 186 in this run. In fact, this model shows a HUGE ridge over the southeast, meaning we'll be back in the 70s next Thursday/Friday. It should be noted that the GFS Ensemble generally agrees with the Euro, giving a bit more credence to the Euro at this time, as illustrated in my 7-day forecast.

SIDE NOTE: The Operational GFS (the images shown above) has sniffed out these cut-off lows much earlier than the Euro over the past few weeks. That's why I'm not throwing it out completely and why I'm bothering to talk about it this morning. I'll watch the trends over the next few days, but it could be exciting for some across the Deep South, again, next week!

Temperatures taking the Plunge!

Good morning! We're seeing a few areas of light rain, so grab the umbrella as you head out. The bigger story, though, is the temperatures! Consider this: We've already hit our high temperature for today! Yes, you read that correctly. Our high, 64 degrees, was attained at midnight. We're currently in the low 50s and will only DROP through the day.

Compare the temperature now to just 24 hours ago and you'll see what I'm talking about:

Quite the cold front moving through mid-Georgia at this time.

Here's the forecast for the next 48 hours:

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City, GA has us holding steady at 52. I don't think that will happen as we'll likely drop into the upper 40s, as Birmingham did yesterday.

Another story of note is the snow in northern Alabama and the Tennessee River Valley this afternoon! I mentioned this in yesterday's blog. Here's what the 00Z Euro is painting:

The heaviest snow will occur in the mountains of West Virginia, but it's interesting to see the Deep South picking up another round of wintry precipitation. Here's the screen grab of the radar for the Deep South from WRBL's Interactive Radar:

The rest of the week will be seasonable with plenty of sunshine after today. Check out the 7-day forecast!

Spotty Showers on the way

Good morning! Some of the night-owls or super early-risers were treated to the pitter patter of rain this morning! We picked up a quarter of an inch of rain between 1 and 5 in Columbus. Auburn, however, picked up a mere 0.04". This illustrates the spottiness of the showers we experienced overnight, and will be the case over the next 24 hours.


All of this rain is out ahead of a cold front moving through western Alabama this morning. It will bring MUCH cooler weather our way tomorrow afternoon. Until then, enjoy the low to mid 70s under a cloudy sky.

Alright, time to get a little technical. Here's the 500 mb vorticity map from the 00Z run for Dec. 6 for 7 AM this morning:  

This matches up fairly well with what's actually happening in the atmosphere. You see a postively tilted trough, imagine drawing a line from New Mexico to Wisconsin. It's like an x=y line, hence why it's a "positively" tilted trough. Now, here's a look at the 39 hour forecast, Wednesday afternoon:

That same trough has now gone negative, draw a line from Panama City, FL to Indianapolis, IN. This allows moisture to flow from the Gulf of Mexico into the Mid-Atlantic States. You'll also notice the red, high vorticity or energy, over the northern half of Alabama and Georgia and Tennessee. This will cause heights to lower, allowing some snow to potentially fall across the Tennessee River Valley! So, if you're a fan of snow, you'll want to head to eastern Tennessee and the Appalachian Mountains Wednesday evening.

This trough is the reason why we're forecasting rain tomorrow morning. Many models, shown below, show us picking up around half an inch of rain, which was my forecast from yesterday. I'm going to up that total, though, as we've already picked up a quarter of an inch and with at least two more rounds of rain to go, we should easily break that half inch mark!

To finish off this post, I'll show you the 24 hour temperature change map for the southeast:

Quite the cool-down for Mississippi this morning, isn't it!?

Remember to check out the 7-day planner!