Sun returns!

Good morning! We're experiencing a chilly start to your Thursday. Many of us bottomed out in the low 30s under a mostly clear sky. A few high clouds are streaming through and will continue to do so until this afternoon. These high clouds won't keep the sun from warming us into the mid 50s!

Here's a look at the current temperatures around the southeast this morning:

 

The cold front made it all the way through Florida, providing them with the coldest air of the season, and left us in the low 30s this morning. 

Tomorrow will feature a few more clouds than today but they won't keep us from bumping up the temperatures a few degrees. If you're looking forward to the weekend, then you'll love the forecast! Check out our 7-day planner for a quick peek. 

LONG RANGE:

Let's go ahead and talk about the end of next week! Why not, right? The weather will be fairly benign until then. 

The long range models, GFS and Euro, are at complete odds. The two recent runs of the GFS, 00Z & 06Z, show another cut-off low moving through the Deep South. This same set-up was seen the past two weeks. Remember what happened? Yup, SNOW for portions of the Southeast. I'm not saying it's set in stone, but the GFS is saying it's a distinct possibility. 

Here's the 500 mb map from the 00Z GFS @ hour 186 (next Thursday afternoon): 

This set-up seems eerily similar to what we saw this past Wednesday. Locations to the northwest of the cut-off low would see another round of snow. BUT, the exact track is certainly not set in stone, not even close. In fact, here's the 500 mb forecast map for the same time period, shown above, from the 06Z GFS @ hour 183:

Notice the subtle differences between the two images. The cut-off low has shifted north as the northern trough, forecast to move into the Dakotas in the 00Z run, isn't there for the 06Z run. This allows the cut-off low to travel further to the north. The trough over the west coast is MUCH sharper in the 06Z run than the 00Z run, also shoving the cut-off low to the north. I'll continue to monitor this set-up as this cut-off low only showed up in the 00Z run.

Now, let me show you why you can't look at just ONE model:

The image above is the 00Z Euro from last night. The yellows and reds are similar to the GFS seen above, it's just a different color scheme. It's for hour 180 instead of 186, but it's close enough. I feel very confident in saying that the Euro is NOT going to pop a cut-off low over the southeast by hour 186 in this run. In fact, this model shows a HUGE ridge over the southeast, meaning we'll be back in the 70s next Thursday/Friday. It should be noted that the GFS Ensemble generally agrees with the Euro, giving a bit more credence to the Euro at this time, as illustrated in my 7-day forecast.

SIDE NOTE: The Operational GFS (the images shown above) has sniffed out these cut-off lows much earlier than the Euro over the past few weeks. That's why I'm not throwing it out completely and why I'm bothering to talk about it this morning. I'll watch the trends over the next few days, but it could be exciting for some across the Deep South, again, next week!