Cold front moving through

A few scattered showers danced around the area late yesterday afternoon and evening. Unfortunately, my house, and many others, stayed dry and will be dry for the foreseeable future.

TODAY:
A cold front is forecast to move through the region later this afternoon, bringing much drier (read lower humidity) and cooler than average temperatures for the weekend. The front will bring a few clouds but not much rain, maybe a rogue shower or two. Highs will once again climb well into the 80s and a few spots may see the 90° mark for a third straight day.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND:
The graphic to the right sums it up. We'll all experience refreshingly cool mornings, low to mid 50s; lower humidity as dew points dip into the low to mid 40s; and highs in the low 80s Friday & Saturday. We'll warm up a bit Sunday & Monday with most escaping the 90° mark until the middle of next week.

We're not the only ones expecting cooler temperatures this weekend. Check out the 2m temperature anomaly map to the left. The blue represents cooler than average temperatures. Not a bad way to kick off the unofficial start to summer!

END OF MAY/BEGINNING OF JUNE:
Computer models still hint at a big ole ridge building over the top of the southeast come the end of next week. If these solutions come to fruition then some could be pushing the mid to upper 90s by the first week of June. This is still a long ways away, but with maps like the one attached below, it'd be difficult for us to escape a few low to mid 90° days.

This ridge will also keep us rather dry to end May and begin June. It's a good thing we picked up all that rain in February as we're still running a rain surplus for the year.


TROPICS:
I mentioned in a blog post over a week and a half ago that something could be brewing in the tropics. The GFS was hinting at a system developing in the western Caribbean, but I mentioned the possibility of it developing in the eastern Pacific instead. Well... If the 00Z GFS is to be believed, we could be talking about a tropical cyclone off the coast of Mexico by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. This makes sense as the upward pulse of the MJO is forecast to move over the region, enhancing the chances of a TC to form.

I'll then post this image to see how accurate the two week forecast of the GFS is when it comes to the tropics (HA!).

Pushing 90 again, but cooler temperatures on the way

A few storms managed to pop-up in our eastern Georgia Counties yesterday; if you lived near the Chattahoochee or points west you were left high and dry. The opposite looks to be true today as a cold front approaches the area, setting the stage for a magnificent Memorial Day weekend.

TODAY:
A line of showers and storms in western Alabama and eastern Mississippi will break apart as it runs in to a more stable air mass. However, with daytime heating, we'll see a few more showers and storms blossom ahead of the front and get some of us wet. Some storms could be strong but nothing like they saw across the Central US the past few days. Highs before the showers/storms roll in top out in the upper 80s to low 90s.

TOMORROW:
A stray shower or two is possible tomorrow morning with the passage of the cold front. We'll still be on the muggy side with temperatures in the mid-upper 60s and dew points well into the 60s (right).

Once the cold front passes, the dew point will be the first thing to drop (left), meaning your Thursday evening will be one of the most pleasant we've seen in almost a week.


The second thing to take the plunge will be the temperatures as we'll dip into the upper 50s to low 60s Friday morning; a refreshing start for sure!




MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND:
It looks like my outlook from last Wednesday turned out to be pretty good. A trough will set up in the east and provide much of the East Coast with fantastic grilling/BBQ weather Friday through Sunday with highs in the low 80s here and mid 70s for northern Alabama/Georgia, low humidity and plenty of sunshine without the threat of rain. The heat will build a bit for Monday but we should fall short of 90 while staying dry.

END OF MAY:
A ridge looks to build across much of the southeast after Memorial Day which means we'll end the month on a dry note. An interesting for ya: we could get away without seeing a drop of rain through July 8th and still be above average for rainfall for the year! That's a good thing since we're likely to go 7-10 days without a hint of rain. It's time to start remembering to water those gardens!

90s are back

We officially hit the 90° mark for the first time this year yesterday. None of us saw rain as most of it developed just southeast of our area and moseyed south.

TODAY:
We'll likely top the 90° threshold again as a weak ridge aloft will put a lid on our shower chances again this afternoon. That said, an isolated shower is possible for our eastern counties later today as the Atlantic sea breeze tries to push west. Otherwise, we'll be partly cloudy with highs in the low 90s.

LATER THIS WEEK: 
A weakening cold front will slide across the Deep South sometime Thursday, bringing scattered showers & storms, none severe, tomorrow and early Thursday morning. Some of us may not see a whole lot of rain with this front, so it's a good thing we picked up over an inch from last Saturday's showers. The rain surplus is still at a healthy 6.27" for the year, but if we don't see rain the rest of the month, we'd end up slightly below average, by about 0.35". In fact, if we could be dry as a bone through July 8th and we'd still have a surplus.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND:
Temperatures are looking great to start Memorial Day weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s and low humidity. Ideal grilling weather if you ask me.

LOOKING AHEAD:
Some computer models are keeping us rather dry through the end of May and to begin June. A strong ridge at 500 mb will build over the southeast, suppressing shower activity and sending temperatures into the mid, maybe upper 90s. This is still way out in the future, 300 hours, but someone in the Southern Plains or southeast is going to get warm to begin the month of June...

The 90s stay away... For now

An upper-level low, the same one responsible for Wednesday's tornadoes in Texas, continues to spin across parts of Arkansas and northern Mississippi. It's bringing showers and thunderstorms to those in proximity of the low and keeping others a bit cooler than originally thought, us included, due to a bit more cloud cover.

TODAY:

Did you enjoy yesterday? Then you're going to enjoy today! Highs top out in the low to mid 80s, with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The dew point, however, is on the climb, making it a bit more humid. A stray shower is possible to our north, but most of us will stay dry.

WEEKEND:
The weekend will be a bit cooler than originally forecast because of the upper-level low spinning across Tennessee and southern Kentucky. An isolated shower is possible for communities north of Columbus but most of us stay dry both days. There are better shower chances north of Birmingham and Atlanta, or north of I-20, as they'll be closer to the low.

NEXT WEEK:
Temperatures will climb as soon as the upper-level low, ULL, pulls away. We'll see the mercury touch the 90° mark in some spots across the Chattahoochee Valley, for the first time this year, either Monday or Tuesday, or both. The first half of the week will be mainly dry as a ridge overhead squashes our shower chances. The end of next week, Thursday/Friday, could see a cold front crawl through the Deep South, ushering in lower dew points, i.e. low humidity, and cooler temperatures. I mentioned this possibility earlier this week for a "cool" Memorial Day; that scenario is still possible, especially if we see this upper-level low, the green over Maine on the bottom image below, a bit more to the west which is what a few models hinted at Wednesday, top image below.

00Z GFS from 5-15-13

ULL over Virginas and sfc high over Great Lakes

00Z GFS from 5-17-13

ULL over Maine & sfc high over OH

BEACH FORECAST:
Here's a quick gander at the forecast along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, generally in the low 80s, along the beach due to the sea breeze. Water temperatures are slowly, but steadily, climbing into the mid 70s.

Here's your First Alert 7-Day Planner. Have a great weekend!

Heat & Humidity to stay

We topped out at 88° yesterday. That's the warmest we've been since September 28, 2012, a stretch of 229 days! You better get used to temperatures like this because they're here to stay for the next 7-10 days.

TODAY:
After many of us started in the mid to upper 60s (the upper 40s/low 50s are a distant memory now, huh?), we'll warm nicely into the mid 80s. A few spots will see a bit more sunshine than others and will top out in the upper 80s. The biggest difference between today and yesterday is the clouds. They'll be more numerous today and will bring a stray shower or two to a lucky few. Many, however, will stay dry.

NEXT FEW DAYS:
Our weather will be in a holding pattern the next week or so. Temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 80s, maybe a 90° or two thrown in for good measure, under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Our rain chances remain small as the storm track shifts north. The only hope we have of rain is from a stray shower bubbling up over the top of our house. This is a very summer-like pattern taking shape. The only thing missing is dew points in the mid to upper 60s; that will change next week when the bubble of moisture out west moseys over us.

SEA BREEZES:
A few showers are possible along the Gulf & Atlantic coasts the next couple of days. The ridge of high pressure is in prime position, in the Atlantic, for this to occur. That kind of leaves us in a squeeze play and is another reason many of us will stay dry. The Raincast to the right shows what I mean. It's showing showers tomorrow all around us, but not here. The upper-level flow isn't strong enough to allow either of the sea breezes to make it here, but one make eek their way into our southern counties. We shall see. 

Check out the next 7 days below!

Warmest Day of the Year so far?

Temperatures will continue to creep into the upper 80s, close to 90 over the next couple of days. Our warmest day of the year, so far, is 86° and we should break that temperature this afternoon. If we're not able to beat it today, there will be plenty of other chances over the next 7-10 days.

Today will see a great deal of sunshine to start off the day. Enough low level moisture will be around to produce a field of fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon as highs climb towards 87°.



The upper-level disturbance I mentioned yesterday is bringing showers and thunderstorms to south-central Texas this morning. Meanwhile, we're still dealing with dry air aloft, which will inhibit any showers this afternoon. However, as that upper-level disturbance gets closer, we'll forecast a stray shower or two. This won't be a widespread event and most will stay dry.


In Monday's blog I mentioned the possibility of Memorial Day weekend being rather warm... Well, things are looking a bit different this morning. Both the Euro and GFS are hinting at a trough in the east coast and even a closed low, remember last week?, in either the Ohio River Valley or Mid-Atlantic states. The NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation, takes a dip in to negative territory within the next few days. When the NAO goes negative, or gets near 0, it usually means a trough forms in the east. We'll see how well this holds up over the next couple of days, but things are pointing to a rather "cool" Memorial Day weekend. Again, take this with a huge grain of salt as we're still 12+ days out.  The other interesting thing to note in the image above is the possible heatwave for parts of the Front Range and western Plains states. A lot can and WILL change, but Memorial Day may not be as warm as once thought.

Until then, enjoy the mid to upper 80s! 

Clouds remain scarce

We saw an absolutely beautiful afternoon yesterday! Highs topped out in the low to mid 70s across the area under a plethora of sunshine. More of the same is expected today except we'll be about 5-7 degrees warmer.

Your Tuesday will see a wonderful amount of sunshine and deep blue sky! Temperatures rapidly climb from the mid to upper 40s into the upper 70s to low 80s. All-in-all, not a bad mid-May day on tap for ya! Enjoy!



Tomorrow will feature our high pressure sliding east. You can see that in the snapshot of our Raincast to the left. The area of clear sky is where the ridge is while the clouds and rain are associated with two different systems. The first system at the top of the screen is a weakening cold front that's being blocked by the high. However, the rain to the left of the image is rain coming from an upper level low pressure.


Here's the upper level low in all it's glory this morning! Moist air, areas indicated by greenish/blue, is warping into it this morning. (Side note: Look at all the dry air, colored in orange, across Louisiana and Florida! That's our high pressure doing work to keep us cloud free today and much of tomorrow.). That low will head this direction Thursday and bring more clouds and maybe an isolated shower or storm.

The overall trend in the temperature department is up!  Here's a snapshot of a slew of models, plus the NWS, and their forecast temperatures. They all eventually plateau in the upper 80s, close to 90, by the weekend. That's reflected in the First Alert 7-Day Planner below. Have a wonderful Tuesday!

Big warm up coming

Hope everyone had a great weekend and enjoyed the refreshing temperatures yesterday!

A few high clouds float through the region throughout the morning, but we'll become sunny this afternoon with highs in the mid 70s.

The cooler temperatures stick around one more day before we see some big changes. Highs will climb from the mid 70s this afternoon to almost 90 this weekend. The reason is the ridge of high pressure providing us pristine weather today will shift eastward and get us into a southerly flow. That southerly flow taps into some Gulf moisture this weekend, which means a stray shower or thunderstorm may bubble up. The Euro is a bit more gung-ho about the rain chances come Saturday & Sunday, hence why I included a chance of rain, albeit a slight one at this time, both those days.



Here's the ridge responsible for our cool temperatures now:

It's over northern Mississippi now, but notice where it is this weekend...:

...out in the Atlantic, bringing us those 90° temperatures Saturday & Sunday.

If you think that's warm, look what a long range model, the GFS and to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt, is showing Memorial Day weekend. That would put many of us in the 90s with a few stray showers.

In yesterday's post, I mentioned a tropical entity in the Caribbean Sea come the last week of May. The models still hint at something developing in either the Caribbean or the eastern Pacific Ocean. If I had to put money on it, I'd say the Pacific storm solution is more plausible as they would already be in their Hurricane Season. The ITCZ, inter-tropical convergence zone, is still pretty far south and would take a rogue tropical wave breaking off and heading in to the Caribbean.

Here's the two different solutions from back to back runs of the GFS, just one of the models I use to forecast:

18Z from May 12:

 

0Z from May 13:

A refreshing start to Mother's Day

Happy Mother's Day!

A cold front moved through last night with little fan-fare. We managed to pick up a trace, officially, of rain last night as the front swept across the southeast. The biggest thing you'll notice is lower humidity as dew points have dipped into the low 50s and will continue to fall throughout the afternoon. Glorious sunshine will allow us to top out in the low to mid 70s. Cooler weather stays here the next couple of days with some locations waking up to the mid to upper 40s come Monday and Tuesday. However, the cooler temperatures won't last all that long, which isn't shocking considering it is mid-May.

 Here's a look at the temperature trend from a variety of computer models over the next week or so.

Temperatures rebound into the mid-upper 80s as the trough providing us cooler temperatures nudges away, allowing a ridge to take its place to end the work week. This ridge will bring mid 90s to the mid-section of the country and keep the storm track well to our north. That said, a few convective showers may be possible next weekend, but they'll be isolated in nature and most will stay dry.

Hurricane Season:
Hurricane season starts in less than 3 weeks and the GFS is trying to develop a storm in the western Caribbean. It's had this feature, varying in intensity, location, and date of formation, for the past couple of days at the end of its model runs. This usually means the model is trying to sniff something out. It's WAY too early to be specific, but it'll be something to keep an eye on as we head towards the beginning of hurricane season.

Here's a look at the 336 hour forecast. It appears somewhat strong in this image, but I'm just using this to illustrate the point that something may start brewing in the Caribbean come the last week of May.

Image courtesy of http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/. A site I recently found and has a lot of different variables for the Tropical Atlantic.