Drier end to July

Good morning! A quick check of the National temperatures shows quite the "fall" like start for parts of the Great Lakes & Ohio River Valley. The cooler air ran in to a road block as it entered the Deep South, allowing us to stay near average.

Our weather will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs climbing close to average, 92. Our forecast temperature map shows a good chunk of us in the upper 80s, with a few spots, like Columbus & Montgomery, in the low 90s. 

 

Another mostly dry day is expected, hence why we get so warm, as highs, officially, climb to near 90 in Auburn and 92 in Columbus. A stray shower is possible for areas near Eufaula and Albany and south of there, or closer to the stalled frontal boundary.

Shower chances will be limited tomorrow as we stay just north of the stalled frontal boundary. Rain chances slowly increase Wednesday as a disturbance rides along the boundary. The last half of the week will see slightly better shower and storm chances as that disturbance sits over us. A trough will set up shop over the eastern half of the country, with us at the bottom of it. The bottom of the trough is where fronts like to stall out, hence our increased rain chances.

Tropics Update:
Tropical Storm Dorian fizzled over the weekend. It's now an open wave north of Puerto Rico and continues to head WNW at 15-20 mph. Some models attempt to spin up Dorian again, but it's not looking all that likely as it heads for the Bahamas Wednesday. From there, the remnants of Dorian will sweep over Florida and provide better shower/storm coverage for parts of the Deep South, including us, this weekend.

Looking ahead to the weekend

Our Weather:
Drier conditions settled over the area yesterday, only allowing one or two showers to dot the sky. Similar conditions are anticipated today with the greatest chance of a stray shower on the Georgia side of the Chattahoochee River. Highs will top out in the low 90s, or very close to average this time of year.

A storm system in the middle of the country will roll through the southeast tomorrow, bringing the chance for scattered showers and storms at any time. More scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday, but the greatest concentration will be south and east of Columbus. Once this storm system exits the Deep South, drier air will filter in to the region.

Tropics:
Tropical Storm Dorian is holding tough this morning. As of 5 AM EDT, it had winds of 50 mph with a forward speed of 20 mph to the west-northwest. The future track of Dorian puts it north of the Greater Antilles early next week. There are two model camps this morning. The GFS now has Dorian barreling in to Hispaniola, basically killing the storm. The EURO, however, does weaken it quite a bit, but sends the remnants of Dorian through the Bahamas and in to South Florida late next week. The good news, as of now, is that Dorian looks to weaken over the coming days. However, we can't let our guard down because Mother Nature might throw us a curve ball or two over the weekend. We'll have a more concrete idea of what Dorian is going to do early next week, if it even survives that long.

Tropical Storm Dorian and Cold Front

TROPICS:
Tropical Storm Dorian continues to churn in the far Atlantic. It's looking pretty healthy this morning with clouds tops colder than -70C, illustrating strong storms near the center. It's got a nice, tight circulation and is fighting off cooler water temperatures, 25-26C, as it continues to intensify.

Early satellite view of Dorian 7-25-13

The overall track of Dorian has it going around the strong Bermuda Ridge. It won't get close to the Lesser Antilles until this weekend. From there, it could go one of two directions. Below is the 6Z GFS:

7-25-13 6Z GFS showing Dorian in the Bahamas

This shows a weaker solution, and very close to what the 0Z Euro showed last night, allowing it to be steered more by the low level winds than upper level winds. The other possible track is it curving up the Southeast coast, shown below from the 0Z GFS. This track would occur if Dorian is a bit stronger.

7-25-13 0Z GFS showing a stronger Dorian

Keep in mind... This is still over 3000 miles from the News 3 viewing area and will take a good 8-10 days for it to get anywhere close to the US. It's too early to pinpoint what Dorian's going to bring us, if anything. The best thing to do is stay up to date with the latest track and check in early next week when we have a better handle on Dorian's evolution and future track.

Our Weather:

Cold front over us with rain in OK & TX

A cold front is sliding through the region as we speak. This front is bringing fall-like temperatures to parts of the Ohio River Valley and Northeast. Some locations in the Great Lakes woke up to the upper 30s and a few spots flirted with record lows.

 

Drier, cooler air trying to make it south

Now, that won't be an issue here, but we could see some spots get down into the upper 60s. Our record low, in case you're wondering, is, officially, 66 set back in 1948. I think the official reporting station stays above that, but others near LaGrange and surrounding areas could flirt with temperatures that cool.

The other good thing about this front is it dries us out! Rain chances are virtually zero to close out the week. Don't get used to it, though. Wetter weather makes another appearance this weekend as the mess of rain in the Plains moseys its way over.