Umbrella's time to shine!

Good Wednesday morning!

It's raining! The rain we've been tracking in Mississippi and Louisiana the past few mornings has finally marched east. The cold front will bring us a for more showers, maybe a thunderstorm, this afternoon before we clear out.

Thursday & Friday:
Both days are looking dry. A few clouds are possible Thursday morning as the front clears the area. We'll then break into a good deal of sunshine with highs in the upper 70s. Friday looks a bit warmer with even more sunshine. A southerly breeze will kick up Friday afternoon, which will set the stage for a soggy, and potentially stormy, weekend.

Weekend: 
The upper level low mentioned in yesterday's blog post is still in the cards. It will be a tad slower than originally forecast, though that is to be expected with this kind of system. Let's look at some of the maps, shall we?

European model 500 mb Vorticity for Saturday night:

The picture above shows the upper level low spinning over New Orleans. Winds around lows are counter-clockwise, which means we'll be experiencing a strong southerly breeze. This sends a good bit of moisture and instability our direction.  Another interesting feature is the area of positive vorticity over southwest Georgia with neutral vorticity in southeast Alabama. The represents an area of lift, bringing the potential for stronger thunderstorms, in the form of a squall line, for areas to the south of Columbus and Auburn. That's illustrated in the next map.

Euro precip/SLP for Saturday night:

Notice the greens and yellows, indicating heavier rainfall totals, across Southwest Georgia and the Big Bend region of Florida. That's the squall line. Stay weather aware if you live along the Florida Peninsula as the line passes through Saturday evening and into the overnight. Squall lines usually bring high winds with an isolated tornado not out of the question, especially along the west coast of Florida.

In Columbus and Auburn, I'm forecasting the line of stronger storms to stay to our south. That means we'll see a moderate to heavy rain event with a few thunderstorms possible. A dry slot develops Saturday night/Sunday morning, essentially shutting off our rain chances for a few hours. This is typical just east of upper level lows as the rain races away from the main system. IF this doesn't happen, then we could see more rain than is currently forecast, which is about an 1 to 2":

I'll conclude with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighting southern Alabama & Georgia and all of Florida for a threat of severe weather Saturday:

Next Week:
After all the rain moves out, we'll cool into the low 70s with breezy northerly winds Monday and Tuesday. A peek into the future shows a dry pattern taking hold for much of next week.

Have a great Wednesday! Remember to check out your 7-day forecast!

Much needed RAIN!

Good morning! It's time to get this thing started back up.

A few light showers produced a few rainbows around Columbus yesterday. Here's a few pictures.

Next Few Days:
If you weren't lucky enough to pick up some rain then hold on a few more hours. The front stationed to our west will migrate to the east over the next 24-36 hours. Once the front pushes past our area, we'll forecast a bit of sunshine for Thursday and Friday.

Weekend:
However, Friday night through Sunday look rather wet. Here's why:

The Euro at 9Z Sunday morning:

That blob of red and purple you see over New Orleans is the vorticity associated with an Upper Level Low (ULL). It's forecast to develop over the state of Texas Friday afternoon and slither east. Upper level lows are known to be slow movers, as this will be, and bring a good deal of rain to the southeast.

Here's the Euro's precipitation map at the same time:

Notice, the heaviest activity is over Georgia. This is about 18 hours after the event starts, so expect to pick up a good bit of rain this weekend.

For comparison's sake, here's the GFS at the same hour:

Here are some numbers the models are printing out: 

(NOTE: This does NOT have the Euro QPF, but the GFS is similar to the Euro's solution)

Both global models, GFS and Euro, have Columbus picking up about 2 inches of rain over the next week. That's GREAT news for a parched southeast! Even better news is this storm system bringing beneficial rainfall to Florida. Parts of that state have been bone dry through much of winter and early spring. However, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is greater along the peninsula. Locally, we may see a strong thunderstorm or two, but the tornado threat is extremely low and I'm not concerned about it at this time.

After the system passes to our east Monday, we'll cool off into the low to mid 70s. However, it should be noted that past runs of the models have shown MUCH cooler temperatures for us. We'll have to wait and see what happens.