Umbrella's time to shine!

Good Wednesday morning!

It's raining! The rain we've been tracking in Mississippi and Louisiana the past few mornings has finally marched east. The cold front will bring us a for more showers, maybe a thunderstorm, this afternoon before we clear out.

Thursday & Friday:
Both days are looking dry. A few clouds are possible Thursday morning as the front clears the area. We'll then break into a good deal of sunshine with highs in the upper 70s. Friday looks a bit warmer with even more sunshine. A southerly breeze will kick up Friday afternoon, which will set the stage for a soggy, and potentially stormy, weekend.

Weekend: 
The upper level low mentioned in yesterday's blog post is still in the cards. It will be a tad slower than originally forecast, though that is to be expected with this kind of system. Let's look at some of the maps, shall we?

European model 500 mb Vorticity for Saturday night:

The picture above shows the upper level low spinning over New Orleans. Winds around lows are counter-clockwise, which means we'll be experiencing a strong southerly breeze. This sends a good bit of moisture and instability our direction.  Another interesting feature is the area of positive vorticity over southwest Georgia with neutral vorticity in southeast Alabama. The represents an area of lift, bringing the potential for stronger thunderstorms, in the form of a squall line, for areas to the south of Columbus and Auburn. That's illustrated in the next map.

Euro precip/SLP for Saturday night:

Notice the greens and yellows, indicating heavier rainfall totals, across Southwest Georgia and the Big Bend region of Florida. That's the squall line. Stay weather aware if you live along the Florida Peninsula as the line passes through Saturday evening and into the overnight. Squall lines usually bring high winds with an isolated tornado not out of the question, especially along the west coast of Florida.

In Columbus and Auburn, I'm forecasting the line of stronger storms to stay to our south. That means we'll see a moderate to heavy rain event with a few thunderstorms possible. A dry slot develops Saturday night/Sunday morning, essentially shutting off our rain chances for a few hours. This is typical just east of upper level lows as the rain races away from the main system. IF this doesn't happen, then we could see more rain than is currently forecast, which is about an 1 to 2":

I'll conclude with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighting southern Alabama & Georgia and all of Florida for a threat of severe weather Saturday:

Next Week:
After all the rain moves out, we'll cool into the low 70s with breezy northerly winds Monday and Tuesday. A peek into the future shows a dry pattern taking hold for much of next week.

Have a great Wednesday! Remember to check out your 7-day forecast!