Not feeling like Fall...

It's the middle of September. The peak of hurricane season just passed. Pumpkin Spiced Lattes are already out at Starbucks, but they were out BEFORE Labor Day. The travesty. (Yes, I've already had a Pumpkin Spice Frappuccino... Couldn't resist!) Pumpkins are already appearing on shelves across the area...

However, don't tell that to our weather! It's been hot, 92° yesterday; humid, dew points have been running in the 70s; and we've been somewhat dry the last few days, which is about to change starting later tonight.

Tonight:

Tonight is the night when a cold front is supposed to get perilously close to us and give us rain. I say perilously because we have High School Football, which is sort of a big deal around here but not as big as baseball, tonight! Those heading out to the games should probably pack the poncho as we look at scattered showers and storms sag south from northern Alabama and Georgia. We aren't looking at any severe weather with these showers and storms, just some rain and a bit of lightning, which can be dangerous out on the field!

The Weekend:
The cold front mentioned above will lose a TON of steam tonight. As a result, the cold front will morph into a stationary front. Sure, it will mosey north and south across Alabama and Georgia over the weekend, but we'll be so close to it that scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast for the duration of the weekend. The showers and storms are most likely after lunchtime and will last into the early evening hours, so Noon~10 PM EDT. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s before the showers and storms fire up.

SEC Football:
The weather could also play an important role during WRBL's SEC Game of the Week as Georgia takes on South Carolina in Columbia. The forecast calls for scattered showers and storms possible throughout the game. Kickoff is 3:30 PM EDT, but it could be the third week in a row we've seen a weather delay due to lightning in the SEC. Florida had their game cancelled against Idaho and Auburn had a lightning delay the first week of the season. Texas A&M also had to deal with a lightning delay of their own last week. We'll see if this game is added to the list...

Just an fyi, Alabama's game against Southern Miss is looking okay with a chance of showers (no thunderstorms) and temperatures in the low 80s.

Early Next Week:
The stationary frontal boundary that plagues us over the weekend will stick around for the first half of the work week. That means more scattered showers and storms in the afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Tropics Watch:
It's also interesting to note that we will have to keep an eye on the disturbance over Florida. This disturbance is forecast to remain rather weak. It is, however, about to roll into the Gulf of Mexico which has water temperatures well into the 80s. The only thing keeping this disturbance from gaining any strength is an upper low causing some shear. If that fades away (not likely) then we could be looking at a Tropical Depression or Storm in the Gulf. Too early to tell what it wants to do, so stay tuned for that.

Tropical "Swirl" over Florida Friday Afternoon. Moves into Gulf and Could Develop.

Looking Ahead:
Again, this is the place I stick the "voodoo" stuff, or things not likely to happen or that I'm skeptical about in the models. It worked out well last time I posted as the CAD one model was trying to develop early next week isn't likely to happen.

Today's "voodoo" is another cold front late next week the models are advertising. The Euro is dragging a cold front through here Wednesday/Thursday of next week. Meanwhile, the GFS has the cold front getting close, much like this weekend's, before stalling it out very close to us. I have a feeling this cold front will dip a little more south (the trough at 500 mb supports that), but it will still struggle to sweep far enough south of us to tap into fall like weather. Time will tell... Until next time!  Cheers!

Remember to follow the First Alert Weather Team on Facebook, Twitter, and online at wrbl.com/weather

Rain Chances Ramp Up Friday

Hello again! It's been a while since I've posted on here as my duties at the station have shifted, but I'm back and hope to do this a little more often than once a year. ;)

Today:
A stationary frontal boundary that's been providing the southeast with a ton of rain has finally sagged south of the News 3 Viewing area which means we'll stay dry for the next couple of days. The front being south of us has also allowed us to see an easterly breeze, developing a stratus deck that is
finally breaking apart around 2 PM this afternoon. There's still another 4 hours of prime heating, though, so we should manage the upper 80s, at least, for highs today.

Next Few Days:
The next couple of days will be highlighted by some rather warm temperatures. Daily highs should easily top the 90° mark Wednesday and Thursday with limited shower and storm coverage to help cool us off. The average high turned the corner yesterday and is finally below 90° with it being 89°. The amazing thing is our average high by September 30th is 82°, so cooler weather is coming!

Overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s. Our average low is 69°, so we're staying above average in both the high and low department.

Friday & The Weekend:
A cold front! Yes, a cold front is scheduled to arrive later this week and into the weekend. The only downside is it will slam on the brakes once it reaches northern Alabama, which means we're likely to stay on the warmer and slightly wetter side of things through at least Saturday evening. The cold front will then trudge south of us later Saturday, but it won't bring a ton of cooler weather with it. If anything, the front will allow us to see lower humidity and lower rain chances to end the weekend and kick off next week. Highs are expected to cool into the mid to upper 80s, which is better than the lower 90s we'll experience leading up to it. Remember to always check out the latest 7-Day forecast at wrbl.com.

Looking Ahead:
Here's where I dive into "Voodoo" land (beyond 7 days) and inform you of what the models are showing. Sometimes, the models are quite entertaining. Other times, they are quite tame. Today's 12Z model runs though were on the more entertaining side of things.

Mid to late next week, the last week of summer by the way, is looking a little cool across the East Coast. Why? Because of an area of high pressure settling over northern Pennsylvania and New York. This high pressure is in prime position to give us a cold air damming (CAD) event next Wednesday through Friday. Couple the location of the high pressure and the stalled frontal boundary/developing low to the south and east of us and you get some ridiculously cool temperatures from the models. Again, this is all for entertainment's sake, but it's still fun to look at nonetheless. 

Below is an image from the 12Z GFS showing temperature (filled & numbered) and pressure (black lines). Anytime you see the black lines "kink" into the southeast from the northeast (like the line going through Atlanta) is a CAD setup.

Sure, these are temperatures for 8 PM next Wednesday, the 17th of September, but take tomorrow night's 8 PM forecast temperatures for a point of reference:

And you see why this is a big deal. That's a 13° temperature drop from one week to the next at the same time! If we were to extrapolate this out then we'd expect the temperatures next Wednesday through Friday to struggle to get out of the 70s for daytime highs. How's that sound for a taste of fall!?

Again, this is out in "voodoo" land in computer models, but it's fun to look at and is always a great way to teach you something in the world of meteorology!