Rain Chances Ramp Up Friday

Hello again! It's been a while since I've posted on here as my duties at the station have shifted, but I'm back and hope to do this a little more often than once a year. ;)

Today:
A stationary frontal boundary that's been providing the southeast with a ton of rain has finally sagged south of the News 3 Viewing area which means we'll stay dry for the next couple of days. The front being south of us has also allowed us to see an easterly breeze, developing a stratus deck that is
finally breaking apart around 2 PM this afternoon. There's still another 4 hours of prime heating, though, so we should manage the upper 80s, at least, for highs today.

Next Few Days:
The next couple of days will be highlighted by some rather warm temperatures. Daily highs should easily top the 90° mark Wednesday and Thursday with limited shower and storm coverage to help cool us off. The average high turned the corner yesterday and is finally below 90° with it being 89°. The amazing thing is our average high by September 30th is 82°, so cooler weather is coming!

Overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s. Our average low is 69°, so we're staying above average in both the high and low department.

Friday & The Weekend:
A cold front! Yes, a cold front is scheduled to arrive later this week and into the weekend. The only downside is it will slam on the brakes once it reaches northern Alabama, which means we're likely to stay on the warmer and slightly wetter side of things through at least Saturday evening. The cold front will then trudge south of us later Saturday, but it won't bring a ton of cooler weather with it. If anything, the front will allow us to see lower humidity and lower rain chances to end the weekend and kick off next week. Highs are expected to cool into the mid to upper 80s, which is better than the lower 90s we'll experience leading up to it. Remember to always check out the latest 7-Day forecast at wrbl.com.

Looking Ahead:
Here's where I dive into "Voodoo" land (beyond 7 days) and inform you of what the models are showing. Sometimes, the models are quite entertaining. Other times, they are quite tame. Today's 12Z model runs though were on the more entertaining side of things.

Mid to late next week, the last week of summer by the way, is looking a little cool across the East Coast. Why? Because of an area of high pressure settling over northern Pennsylvania and New York. This high pressure is in prime position to give us a cold air damming (CAD) event next Wednesday through Friday. Couple the location of the high pressure and the stalled frontal boundary/developing low to the south and east of us and you get some ridiculously cool temperatures from the models. Again, this is all for entertainment's sake, but it's still fun to look at nonetheless. 

Below is an image from the 12Z GFS showing temperature (filled & numbered) and pressure (black lines). Anytime you see the black lines "kink" into the southeast from the northeast (like the line going through Atlanta) is a CAD setup.

Sure, these are temperatures for 8 PM next Wednesday, the 17th of September, but take tomorrow night's 8 PM forecast temperatures for a point of reference:

And you see why this is a big deal. That's a 13° temperature drop from one week to the next at the same time! If we were to extrapolate this out then we'd expect the temperatures next Wednesday through Friday to struggle to get out of the 70s for daytime highs. How's that sound for a taste of fall!?

Again, this is out in "voodoo" land in computer models, but it's fun to look at and is always a great way to teach you something in the world of meteorology!