Midday Temperatures with a look at Tomorrow's Severe Weather Potential

Here's a look at the surface obs at 12:30 pm EST. Look at the southerly winds to the west just ushering in the gulf moisture out ahead of our next frontal system. This is getting the atmosphere primed and ready for the severe weather outbreak later this evening across portions of OK, AR, MO, IL, KY, TN, and northern MS.

We had areas of dense fog around the Columbus area this morning, keeping our temperatures held down just a little bit at this hour. The sun is starting to dissipate the fog, making way for a warm Sunday afternoon.

Tomorrow, we will be tracking a frontal system (the same one that will provide severe weather for the areas stated above) that will drag a line of showers and thunderstorms through Alabama and into Georgia. This line will move through tomorrow late afternoon/early evening, when we are at our warmest, and have enough instability with it to have severe thunderstorm warnings across both states. The biggest threat for damage will be from very gusty winds (in excess of 60 mph for brief periods), straighline winds, and some hail. The threat for tornadoes is held down by the lack of directional shear for us, though one or two spin-ups cannot be ruled out.

HOWEVER, this threat could diminish IF we see quite a bit of cloud cover tomorrow. There is a CAP (temperatures inversion that doesn't allow for air to rise continuously) forecasted for us locally, so tomorrow's high temperatures is going to be KEY! I am forecasting temperatures to be in the upper 70s to near 80. This MAY be enough to break the cap and allow air to rise rapidly.

Rainfall totals tomorrow will range from about 0.5" to 1.0" for many,  with some spots in the stronger storms possibly picking up 1.5".

After we get this system to move out, we will cool off into the upper 60s to near 70 and dry out. The pleasant weather will be with us through the work week. Next weekend, we will have to watch for another rain system, as right now the models are picking up on a cut-off low moving slowly through the southeast. This would provide VERY beneficial rainfall for all of Georgia and Alabama.

Another chance for rain on Monday

Today, we warmed up nicely into the middle 70s. Tomorrow, with more of a southerly wind, will be even warmer with temperatures in the upper 70s. A few of you across Clay, Quitman, Randolph, Barbour, and Pike counties may touch 80.

During the day tomorrow, we will watch a low pressure system move out of the Rockies and intensify over central Oklahoma. This will provide ANOTHER severe weather threat for most of Arkansas and western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky. This low pressure system will track to the northeast through Ohio and into Pennsylvania. Most of the energy will move to the north, but there will be a line of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms that will move through West Central Georgia and East Central Alabama Monday afternoon. We are not anticipating a wide spread severe event, but with the daytime heating during the afternoon on Monday that COULD provide enough instability for a few of these thunderstorms to become severe. We will pick up about a half an inch of rain, which will give us a total of over 4 inches for the month of February.

The beginning of March will see a slight cool down after the front moves. Temperatures for the middle part of the work week will be up near 70. We will stay dry through next Friday. Next weekend, we will track another low pressure system. This time the low will take a more southerly track. This means a more widespread rainfall event for much of Alabama and Georgia. This can certainly change as we are a week out. The trend for these systems has been for the low to take a track more to our north and west. We will have to see if this holds true for next weekends system.

First Alert Meteorologist David Reese