Thursday, July 14, 2011

National Weather Outlook

Current analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary right over the top of us. This will provide us with better coverage for showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. A few of the storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and the threat for some microbursts, areas of gusty winds. Other than that, temperatures will manage to get into the mid 90s before the rain moves in, with slightly lower heat indices because of the cooler temperatures.

As we go into Friday, a backdoor cool front will work its way down the Appalachians. Combine this with a high pressure over the Northeast setting up a Cold Air Damming (CAD) situation for east Georgia. We could feel the effects locally in the form of rain and temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. The front will slowly move south on Saturday, before clearing out Sunday.

Sunday and Monday will see highs near normal, with afternoon showers and storms possible in the afternoon. Tuesday will begin the warming trend with a STRONG high pressure building into the southeast. This will bring back the upper 90s by Wednesday.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Warmest Ever Overnight Temp for July 13th

We tied a record high MINIMUM temperature this morning in Columbus. The thermometer never dipped below 78 degrees, tying the old record set in 1991.

The warmth will continue at least the next 24 hours, before we begin to see a few changes. The change will come in the form of "cooler" temperatures and better rain chances. A trough of low pressure situated along the Gulf Coast will advance north, along a backdoor frontal system will sag south; the combination of the two will allow me to increase rain chances across West Central Georgia and East Central Alabama the next few days. The weekend will see a smattering of storms in the afternoon, but the temperatures will still be in the low to mid 90s for daytime highs.

As we advance into next week, we'll see another ridge of high pressure build over the Ohio River Valley. The axis of the ridge will keep the hottest temperatures to our north, but I am forecasting highs to rebound into the middle 90s. Also, since we will be on the periphery of this high, we'll have to watch for a few dying Mesoscale Convective Systems approach us from the north. These could pack quite a punch if they are able to hold together through Alabama and Georgia.

The National Hurricane Center has given a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche a 50% chance of developing within the next 48 hours. Taking a look at the loop below shows there is SOME rotation with it and its proximity to the coastline equals not a great chance of it developing, but there is still that chance.
Bay of Campeche