A few more warm days are in store before the first chill of Winter moves in next week.
Friday:
It's the last Friday of the year and it's going to be a warm one, relatively speaking. Enough moisture is being pulled up from the Gulf Coast to allow fog to develop this morning. The fog will dissipate and make way for a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon. Highs top out near 66.
Weekend:
A southwesterly flow the next few days will keep us almost 10 degrees above average to end 2011 and start 2012. Another weak front will attempt to move in tomorrow but won't have enough energy to produce any showers. On the other hand, Sunday's front will have enough moisture to pop a few light showers. Even with a mostly cloudy sky, I'm forecasting highs in the mid 60s. Back behind that front will be the coldest air of the season so far.
First week of 2012:
We're still forecasting a trough to pull down the coldest air of the season. Models are finally coming into agreement about the extent of the cold. GFS MOS has us in the mid 40s, finally, while the raw data still has us in the upper 30s for Tuesday, our coldest day next week. We'll then moderate some into the upper 40s to near 50 for Wednesday. Another thing to watch out for next week will be the windy conditions as the cold air spills south. Winds are forecast to be anywhere from 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
The cold air and winds will ease up by the latter half of next week but just how much we'll moderate is yet to be determined. Here's why:
00Z GFS for Thursday night:
00Z Euro for Thursday night:
The models are night and day in regards to the second piece of energy, mentioned in yesterday's blog, on the back side of the trough. The GFS cuts off a low over Texas and leaves it there for a day or two before ejecting it northeast through the Tennessee River Valley. If this were to occur, we'd be a southwesterly flow aloft and we'll be near 60 or above by next weekend. Compare that to the Euro which has the energy skirting our area. This keeps us cool with highs in the upper 40s. Either way, the cold won't be sustained.
It'll be interesting to see what the models do over the next few days with this second piece of energy. They could forecast something in the middle, likely, something like the GFS, not as likely, or something like the Euro, not as likely as the middle of the road solution but more likely than the GFS. It's basically a wait and see forecast until we see how strong the initial trough is and where the energy comes ashore in the west coast.
Indices:
I'll leave you with this nugget of information : The PNA is going to go negative again, NAO is still positive, AO is still positive. Those indices provide more proof that this won't be a sustained cold shot. HOWEVER, at the end of the two week forecast period, the PNA is looking to go positive and both the AO and NAO are forecast to go negative by the middle of the month. That's pretty significant because if those verify, we will be talking about a cold end to January. It's not set in stone by any means, just something I'll keep an eye on over the coming week.
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