Rain moving out

Good Tuesday morning!

Pitter-patter, pitter-patter, pitter-patter. That was the sound of rain many of us fell asleep to last night. It's also what some us are waking up to this morning. It won't last much longer as the back-end of the rain shield is passing through as I type. Cooler air will take the rain's place this afternoon. Don't expect temperatures to rise much throughout the day as clouds hang tough, although a few rays of sun are possible late this afternoon.

Today: 
As illustrated on our Interactive Radar, the rain is coming to an end and should be out of the area by 8 AM ET. The cold front will then pass through cooling us off this afternoon. I'm forecasting temperatures to hold steady throughout the day. A few peeks of sun could ruin that forecast but it's enough of a concern for me to mention it here. A clearing sky will be the story this evening as we cool off big time. Lows are forecast to bottom out near 36 with the cooler spots dipping into the low 30s.

Rest of the Year:
We'll call for a good deal of sunshine to finish 2011. Highs will steadily rise from 54 degrees tomorrow to the mid 60s by Saturday. A few high clouds are possible Thursday morning as a weak disturbance rides on by. Clouds will increase Saturday afternoon as we get back into a southwesterly flow. Other than that, enjoy the rest of 2011!

2012:
No, I'm not talking about the movie but possible cold front for January 2nd. This front will be tricky to forecast as the models start to diverge in their solutions BIG time. The GFS is sticking to its guns with a trough in the northeast. On the other side of the coin, the Euro has a deep trough in the eastern half of the country next Monday. Here's what I mean:

00Z GFS for Monday morning:

00Z Euro for Monday morning:

The GFS is slightly weaker in its solution with the trough not as strong. This looks to bring a quick shot of cold and snow for the Northeast before moving out again. With the weaker solution comes a lesser chance for rain next Sunday/Monday. The Euro, however, still shows a strong, though more positively tilted, trough over the Ohio River Valley. This would send down the coldest air of the season for much of the country. It also drags a cold front through the Deep South Monday afternoon and cools us off big time. In fact, 2m temperature forecasts from the Euro has us getting into the teens Tuesday morning! That's NOT likely to happen! Yes, it will be cooler for the first week of 2012 but it won't be super cold like last year. Right now I'm going with a blend of the Euro and GFS with a chance for rain Monday, which the Euro is showing, with seasonable temperatures, which the GFS has. The teleconnections, detailed some in yesterday's blog, continue to indicate a cool down for the eastern half of the country. How strong the indices get remains to be seen but the overall trend is for a cooler, more seasonable start to the New Year.

Remember to check out the 7-Day Planner to plan for New Year's Eve!