Another round of rain!

Good Monday morning!

We saw a great deal of rain yesterday. Officially, we picked up just over half an inch while some of our weather watchers picked up closer to an inch. If you didn't pick up enough rain yesterday, there's another chance this evening as a cold front sweeps through the Deep South.

Today/Tonight: 
The cut-off low that brought a White Christmas to West Texas will finally eject eastward. A surface low develops underneath the cut-off low and forms a cold front. The rain shield won't arrive until this evening with the heaviest rain expected tomorrow morning. Models are giving us another half inch to inch of rain, which lines up well with the Hydrometeorolical Prediction Center's (HPC) forecast. There will be enough instability to call for a few thunderstorms in the overnight hours. They will stay below severe criteria though!

Models output:

HPC Forecast for next 2 days:

We'll warm to near 60 this afternoon as a warm front lifts north this afternoon. Tomorrow will be much cooler, even if the actual high won't seem that cool.

Tomorrow:
The heaviest rain will be early in the morning, when many of us are sleeping. Be sure to tune into New 3 This Morning @ 5 AM ET to track the rain with me! It's a tricky high temperature forecast. We're calling for highs to reach 58 degrees, though we will likely reach that in the early morning hours. Temperatures will fall as the front passes through and clouds linger. If you're heading out tomorrow afternoon, we'll call for temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Rest of the week: 
Cold air advection (CAA) will allow me to forecast highs in the mid 50s Wednesday and upper 50s Thursday despite abundant sunshine. A few high clouds are possible Thursday afternoon as a weak, upper level disturbance passes by. Friday will feature another mostly sunny afternoon with highs in the low 60s. New Year's Eve is looking pleasant and warm with highs in the mid 60s.

2012:
The New Year will start off on the mild side and a front knocking on the door. The Euro and GFS are at odds with next week's forecast, big shocker I know. The GFS is more progressive, fast, and doesn't have as deep of a trough as the Euro, which has the trough much deeper and farther west. I'm siding with the Euro in this case as it has proved to be the more accurate model in the longer range.

00Z GFS for next Monday:

00Z EURO for next Monday:

If the Euro's forecast were to come to fruition, then it will get mighty chilly next Tuesday and Wednesday. Here's a reason why: The Pacific/North American (PNA) index, which is an index that tells whether we have a ridge in the west coast of the US or not, forecast to go positive. That means we'll see a ridge build over the western states which translates to a colder east coast. It all depends how positive the PNA goes as to how strong and sustained the cold snap will be. Like I said earlier in this post, the Euro seems more likely so cold air will greet us the first week of 2012. If we can have the cold air in place and another system develop near the Gulf then we could talk about wintry precipitation for portions of the Southeast. It's WAY too early to speculate on that but it is looking better for cold air to settle in.