Cold Rain!

Good Monday Morning! I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend!

If you haven't been watching, I've been talking about a few sporadic showers with a few more rounds possible this afternoon. All the clouds and rain will keep us quite cool! The sun should return tomorrow afternoon but it will still have to deal with those pesky high clouds. Highs will warm each and every day this workweek as illustrated in the First Alert 7-Day Planner.

Now:
Showers are the name of the game. The heaviest activity rolled through between 4:30 and 7 this morning with the heaviest activity across southeast Georgia, where they desperately needed it. Locally, we've picked up 0.62"! This is beneficial as it will cut into our 8.86" deficit for year. Clouds and rain have kept us all in the low 40s this morning and won't allow us to warm all that much this afternoon. Remember to check out the Interactive Radar before you step out the door this morning to find out if the rain is over your house!

Here's a peek at the radar, showing the heaviest activity through Chambers, Harris and Talbot counties, as of 7:40 AM:

This Week: 
If you remember last week's blog posts you'll remember me talking about a chance for rain later this week. I still have the chance in there for Thursday night and Friday morning, but don't expect a deluge. Here's why:

00Z GFS (YES, I started using the same site, wunderground, to keep things consistent for you):

There's the trough, draped across Kentucky, that was forecast to sweep through the area. In fact, if you remember earlier last week, the GFS showed a cut-off low moving through the Deep South. This is CLEARLY not going to happen and I'm glad I didn't bite on that solution as it didn't have much support from other models (another great example why you can't look at only one model when forecasting).

Here's the 00Z EURO for the same hour (Thursday night):

This shows a weak disturbance, piece of energy or shortwave, moving through northern Alabama creating an area of lift to initiate a few showers late Thursday/early Friday. Both models show a front draped just south of the Ohio River Valley that will be hard pressed to sweep through the Deep South. That's why I'm forecasting a chance for rain Thursday evening. The front will finally push through the area overnight Friday, dropping our temperatures back into the mid 60s this weekend.

Long Range: 
Another thing I enjoy doing in this blog is forecasting the 7 to 10 day range. Here's an image off the GFS for next Sunday night:

There's a trough lifting out of the Four Corners region and looks to be heading for the Great Lakes region. A quick glance at the GFS Ensembles shows this solution might be a bit too progressive, fast, and opens the low too early. I expect the low to lag back across the southwest and spin for a few days, as shown by the EURO:

So what's all the mean for us next week? It means we'll forecast a fairly dry Saturday through Tuesday before the tail end of a front gets close to us, bringing rain next Thursday.

Have a great Monday!