Wednesday, December 14, 2011

More sunshine!

Good Wednesday morning! We're halfway through the week and it's only going to get warmer.

Another round of sunshine will greet you this morning before a few high clouds pass through later today. Temperatures will warm into the low 70s, a few spots may even see 74/75. These highs aren't close to the record high, 78, but are well above average for December.

Today:
Wake up temperatures are in the mid 40s for most, with the lone 50 degree reading in Auburn. As you're at work, the sun will do its job and warm us nicely into the low to mid 60s by lunchtime. A few high clouds start entering the picture later today, but they won't stop us from warming into the low 70s.

Friday/Saturday:
The cold front I've been advertising the past few days will get hung up across the Tennessee River Valley tomorrow night. It will take another impulse of energy and a strong northwesterly flow aloft to kick front through our area Saturday morning. Even though the cold front will bring copious amounts of rain to parts of Tennessee and Mississippi, it won't bring a whole lot to our neck of the woods. Here's a look at the Bufkit precipitation chart for the next week:

As mentioned in yesterday's blog, I'm forecasting us to pick up less than a quarter of an inch of rain. There's just not a whole lot of moisture or right dynamics in place to give us a good soaking.

Next Week:
Alright, I've been detailing next week's system for the past few days and there are a few changes to report this morning. The models have COMPLETELY flipped; the GFS now looks like the EURO from yesterday, while the EURO looks like the GFS from yesterday... Oh the joys of forecasting! Today, the GFS has the closed-low in the same position as the EURO yesterday and moves it into the Central Plains States. A secondary piece of energy will rotate around the base of the trough next Wednesday and provide us a chance for rain. Here's what I'm talking about:


The EURO, though, is much like the GFS yesterday. It still has the closed-low in northern Mexico but it ejects the low into the Great Lakes by next week. A cold front associated with the low will sweep through the Deep South here next Wednesday. With this solution, we wouldn't cool off as much as the GFS has us cooling off as we stay in a westerly flow aloft:

A cold front will move through the southeast next Tuesday/Wednesday, a tad earlier than my forecast the previous two days. It remains to be seen whether we see a lot of rain or even much colder weather as we head into Christmas. This system could create a few headaches for those trying to get north for Christmas with great amounts of rain possible for the northeast. I will note that the GFS Ensembles are looking much like the EURO at this time.

As always, check out the First Alert 7-Day Planner to plan for your weekend!

1 comment:

  1. Cant wait to watch the news in a little bit! We always look forward to seeing you in the mornings David!

    ReplyDelete