Warming Trend Begins!

Good morning!
 
Were you able to stay warm yesterday? Our official high was 50, a good 10 degrees below average. Today will be much different. A good supply of sunshine and southeasterly winds will warm us a few degrees ABOVE average. A southerly wind tomorrow will warm us into the upper 60s with a few locations touching that 70 degree mark. This roller coaster of temperature swings continues.

End of Week:
A cold front is forecast to chug into the Tennessee River Valley before coming to a screeching halt Thursday evening. It will stall out just to our north so the chance for rain will be best for our neighbors to the north Thursday night. An upper level ridge will provide the umph needed to sag the front south of our area Saturday afternoon so Friday looks to be the best day for rain. Here's the rainfall forecast issued by the HPC for Friday thru Saturday:

The heaviest rain will fall closer to where the front stalls; northern Alabama and Georgia. Locally, we're expecting less than a quarter of an inch.

Long Range:
Next week, the week before Christmas, looks interesting. A strong trough, or closed-low depending on what model you investigate as I'll show you in just a minute, is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest. Like many before it, this trough will lift northeast into the Midwest. Now, the tricky part will be determining just how far northeast this trough goes. Here's what I mean:

00Z GFS 500 mb @ hr 150:

00Z GFS 500 mb @ hr 180:

Compared to the EURO at the same hours:
hr 150:

hr 180:

That's quite a difference between the two more reliable models. The GFS has the trough as an open wave moving through northern New Mexico which ejects toward the Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. The Euro has a closed low in northern Mexico and has it taking a path through the Midwest next Tuesday morning. The path all depends on how the southeast ridge is modeled. Models have been overdoing the strength of the southeast ridge, a staple of La Nina winters which we're in a weak Nina now. If the SE ridge is flatter, not as strong, then the Euro solution is more likely. The opposite is true if the ridge is stronger.

Right now, I'll lean more with the Euro as it has a little more support from its Ensembles and the GFS Ensembles. It's something to watch because areas to the northwest of the low will see quite a bit of snow! No, I'm not forecasting that for us, but it's something fun to watch as we inch closer to Christmas. I'm still holding with my forecast from yesterday that the front, associated with the low, will sweep through next Thursday; bringing us our next chance for rain.

Back behind the front will be some colder air. If we can get another disturbance to cause some overrunning precipitation, which appears possible with the Euro, then parts of the Carolinas could see some wintry precipitation. This doesn't look possible for us, just wanted it noted to see how well I forecasted. ;)

Remember to check out the 7-day planner to figure out what the weather will be like this weekend!