A Milky Sky

Good Friday Morning!

High clouds continue to stream through the Deep South, racing across the sky because of the subtropical jetstream. They haven't kept us from seeing low to mid 30s area wide, though, so that jacket will be needed as you step out the door. Expect highs in the mid to upper 50s despite the clouds and even warmer temperatures for your Saturday.

Today:
Alright, so I mentioned the high clouds but where are they coming from? A view of the infrared satellite shows they are coming from the southwest, near Texas:

The brighter colors, greens and blues, indicate the clouds heading our way. They are riding along the subtropical jetstream which is evident on this morning's analysis of the 250 mb map:

The salmon colors indicate stronger winds and we're able to tell it's the subtropical jet because the polar jetstream is diving out of Canada, near Montana. As long as this subtropical jet is over the top of us, we'll see those high clouds filter out the sunshine.

Weekend: 
Tomorrow will see temperatures near 60 degrees before a DRY cold front moves through in the evening. This will reinforce the cold air already in place and drop our highs back into the mid 50s. The sun won't be as filtered once the front shoves the subtropical jet south.

Long Range: 
If you read yesterday's blog, you'll remember I talked about the GFS showing the possibility of a cut-off low moving through the Deep South next Thursday. Well, just 24 hours later and we're talking about a scenario similar to what the Euro illustrated. Here's what I mean:

The above is from the 00Z GFS for Thursday afternoon. Notice the energy, depicted in yellows and oranges, are WELL north; closer to the Great Lakes than the Deep South. It's still an open wave, no closed lines in the middle, meaning it's not as strong as what the Euro is showing:

The Euro has this low becoming closed in the mid-levels, meaning it has the potential to get fairly strong at the surface. Winds in this set-up could gust as high as 50 mph across the Great Plains and may bring blizzard like conditions to the Dakotas. It's certainly something I'll keep an eye on through the weekend. Both models show a ridge, pleasant weather, through the beginning half of next week and warmer temperatures.

How does this change the impact on our area? Well, it won't rain as much and the timing of the rain, if any, has been pushed back another day. Overall, the pattern is loaded with these disturbances and I wouldn't be surprised to see this trough dig a little farther south, as other storms have done in the past. These are the joys of forecasting the longer range, 5-10 days. Models like changing, sometimes quite a bit, so we have to recognize the pattern and see if anything has changed in the teleconnections, or will change, to get a decent grasp of what's going to happen. I can tell you this much: there will NOT be a prolonged cold spell anytime within next 10-14 days.

Remember to check out the 7-day planner to figure out what the next week has in store for you!