Tropical Storm Karl

Tropical Storm Karl formed in the Caribbean Sea this evening. Its winds are 45 mph and is moving to the WNW at 15 mph. This movement means the system will be effecting the border of Belize and Mexico tomorrow morning. After moving over land, which will weaken the system to a tropical depression for a time, it will emerge into the Bay of Campeche. Once it does so, Karl will restrengthen into a Tropical Storm once again before heading to the Mexican coastline. Fortunately, for the United States, this system will not be affecting Texas; which is welcome news because they just experienced Hermine's wrath just a little over a week ago.

The reason this system is heading towards Mexico is due to high pressure entrenched over the Southeast. This is allowing all of the tropical systems in this region, so far, to head toward the Mexico-Texas border. Karl will not experience much sheer, and if it holds together over the Yucutan Peninsula, then I would not be surprised to see Karl become a hurricane just before its second landfall. This will not intensify into a powerful storm, just a minimal hurricane. Right now, the forecast track has Karl making landfall Wednesday morning on the Yucutan, and making its second landfall by Friday night.

Again this system is not forecast to hit the United States, but should still be monitored by those living in South Texas.

Here is the forecast track by the NHC: