Sunshine!!!

The sun is out in full force this morning! The clouds didn't clear out of here as early as I forecasted yesterday afternoon, off by 3 hours which isn't bad ;), but they cleared out just in time for sunrise. With the clouds gone, we're already warmer than we've been the past 2 days!

Here are the station plots and satellite image to illustrate what I'm talking about:

A little shortwave, providing rain across the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma yesterday, has shunted our clouds to the east. These new clouds aren't nearly as dense as the past two days, so the sun will be able to filter through. The station plots also illustrate something else: warmer temperatures! We're already at 71 in Columbus at 11 AM. My forecast of upper 70s appears to have been too low and have adjusted upward into the lower 80s. Either way, we are still below average by a good 5 to 8 degrees; and I'm not hearing much complaining.

The forecast for the next two days are as simple as it gets: sun, sun, a cloud or two, and more sun!

Tonight:  With the clear conditions, we'll be a tad cooler than last night. However, with the upper level low retrograding west, we won't get as cool as they were across West Alabama and Mississippi last night (low 50s). However, some of the traditionally cooler spots could very well be in the low 50s.

Friday: A mostly sunny afternoon, with a few clouds passing through. Highs will manage to get into the mid 80s.

Friday Night: Another night in the lower 60s with plenty of clear sky.

Football Saturday! Fantastic football weather! Mostly sunny conditions with highs in the middle 80s.

Tropics: 

    Maria: Continues to book it to the west at 20 to 25 mph. Right now it is forecast to be near the northern Lesser Antilles by late Friday night/Saturday morning. It is then forecast to turn north into towards Puerto Rico. This is the likely solution right now, but I will tell you; if it stays a weak tropical storm, it will make it further west across the Caribbean Sea and will need to be watched carefully! I don't think it will attain hurricane status anytime soon and a track further to the west than the NHC's forecast is likely.

     Nate: Meandering around the southern Bay of Campeche. This is a TINY storm. It's forecast track by the National Hurricane Center has it essentially stalled for the next 5 day! This makes perfect sense since there isn't a strong steering current one way or the other to steer it toward Mexico or the northern Gulf of Mexico.The conditions are incredible for Nate to rapidly strengthen by Saturday and we could be talking about a Major Hurricane in the Gulf by Sunday. It appeared we were getting SOME consensus from the global models of Nate heading towards Mexico. However, the 6Z GFS and CMC threw a monkey wrench into that:

 

The general idea for Nate is a drift off to the north over the next few days. The BIG question will be whether it gets picked by a trough progged to move through Monday or if it gets left behind. If it gets picked up it will head toward the northern Gulf; if it gets left behind, it will stall again and meander to the west towards Mexico.

I am sticking with my forecast from yesterday of a landfall in northern Mexico as a Cat 2 or 3 Hurricane until I see better model consistency.

Thanks for reading!

David Reese